TPL TPL

Name: TPL Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $445.41

Crucible Score

49.6

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

70.8

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

23.6

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — TPL

TPL earns a C- Crucible Score of 49.6, reflecting a stark quality-value disconnect with excellent financial metrics (94 quality score) but poor value at 23.6 KVI. The company trades slightly above fair value at $445 versus $433 base case, despite strong financial fundamentals and solid market positioning. Watch for earnings consistency improvements given the weak 42% beat rate.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

94.5

Growth Profile

66.5

Moat Durability⚠

65.7

Management Effectiveness

63.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

45.0

Market Position

70.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (45.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

44.5

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

24.6

Relative Valuation

5.0

Growth-Adjusted Value

10.5

Historical Valuation

15.9

Macro Context

8.8

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$268.50

Base Case

$432.80

Bull Case

$665.20

Price at Analysis

$445.41

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$268.50	6.0%	70.0%	9.2%
🟢 Base	$432.80	10.0%	74.0%	8.7%
🟢 Bull	$665.20	14.0%	78.0%	8.2%

Key Assumptions: TPL operates as a royalty/land trust with exceptionally high margins (74-84% operating) and minimal capex requirements (~5.5% of revenue), reflecting its asset-light model on Permian Basin acreage. Revenue growth is anchored to 5-year CAGR of ~15% but moderated forward given maturing Permian development; FCF conversion remains very high at ~60% of revenue. WACC uses CAPM with 5.5% ERP and 0.77 beta, yielding 8.2-9.2% range across scenarios, with terminal growth reflecting long-lived land/royalty assets tied to energy demand.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin100.0%

Operating Margin74.2%

Net Margin60.3%

ROIC31.2%

ROE57.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 4.40

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.01x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 7.5%

Altman Z-Score116.21 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR15.3% CAGR

Earnings CAGR15.6% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.20

Segment Breadth4/5 growing (80%)

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↘, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityMixed

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership58.0%

Compensation89% performance-based

Insider ActivityNeutral

Capital AllocationROIC 31.2% vs WACC 8.8%

Earnings Beat Rate42% (10/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.