TSCO TSCO

Name: TSCO Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored March 31, 2026

Price at analysis: $43.82

Crucible Score

60.0

C+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

63.2

B-

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

56.1

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — TSCO

TSCO earns a middling C+ grade, weighed down by abysmal diversification scores and lackluster growth prospects despite solid financial quality and competitive moats. The stock trades at a modest discount to fair value, but insider selling and a poor earnings beat rate of just 37% signal execution challenges. Watch whether management can translate its strong market position into consistent results.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

72.2

Growth Profile⚠

48.8

Moat Durability⚠

77.0

Management Effectiveness

61.7

Diversification & Resilience

12.0

Market Position

62.0

Weakest dimension: Diversification & Resilience (12.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

64.1

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

34.8

Relative Valuation

91.7

Growth-Adjusted Value

8.2

Historical Valuation

87.1

Macro Context

67.6

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$34.12

Base Case

$48.57

Bull Case

$67.24

Price at Analysis

$43.82

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$34.12	3.5%	8.8%	8.2%
🟢 Base	$48.57	5.0%	9.5%	7.7%
🟢 Bull	$67.24	6.5%	10.5%	7.3%

Key Assumptions: TSCO revenue grew at ~5% CAGR over the trailing 5 years with stable operating margins near 9.5-10.3%. WACC is derived using CAPM with 4.33% risk-free rate, 0.70 beta, and 5.4% ERP yielding ~7.7% base cost of equity, blended with after-tax cost of debt (~4.2%) at ~70% debt-to-capital. Capex intensity averaged ~5.5-5.8% of revenue; bear case assumes margin compression to 8.8% terminal with slower 3.5% growth, while bull assumes margin expansion to 10.5% with 6.5% revenue growth driven by new store openings and same-store gains.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin33.2%

Operating Margin9.5%

Net Margin7.1%

ROIC13.4%

ROE41.4%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.34

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.67x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 5.8%

Altman Z-Score4.62 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR5.1% CAGR

Earnings CAGR2.4% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.80

Segment BreadthInsufficient segments

Quarterly TrendRev↘+3%, Margin↓, WC↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Misser

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOHal M. Lawton · 9 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation73% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 13.4% vs WACC 0.9%

Earnings Beat Rate37% (7/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted March 31, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.