UNP UNP

Name: UNP Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 20, 2026

Price at analysis: $251.14

Crucible Score

55.8

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

61.1

C+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

49.2

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — UNP

Union Pacific (UNP) presents a quality-value disconnect with solid financial strength (72) and dominant market position (74) overshadowed by weak growth prospects (41) and poor diversification (48). The stock trades near fair value at $251 versus $268 base case, but insider selling and a mediocre 50% earnings beat rate signal caution. UNP's railroad franchise remains strong, though growth catalysts appear limited.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

72.5

Growth Profile

40.8

Moat Durability⚠

64.1

Management Effectiveness⚠

58.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

48.0

Market Position

74.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (40.8)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

62.7

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

37.8

Relative Valuation

76.1

Growth-Adjusted Value

8.3

Historical Valuation

43.7

Macro Context

69.9

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$196.52

Base Case

$268.37

Bull Case

$362.18

Price at Analysis

$251.14

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$196.52	2.0%	38.0%	9.8%
🟢 Base	$268.37	3.5%	41.0%	9.1%
🟢 Bull	$362.18	5.0%	43.0%	8.5%

Key Assumptions: UNP shows stable revenue around $24B with operating margins of 38-43% and capex intensity of ~15%. Base case assumes modest 3.5% revenue CAGR reflecting pricing power and volume recovery with margins stabilizing near 41%, consistent with 5-year averages. Bear case models macro slowdown with 2% growth and margin compression to 38%, while bull case assumes stronger industrial volumes and operational efficiency driving 5% growth and 43% margins. WACC derived from CAPM with 5.5% ERP, adjusted modestly across scenarios to reflect risk differentials.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin45.7%

Operating Margin40.1%

Net Margin29.1%

ROIC11.7%

ROE38.3%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.91

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.77x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 15.5%

Altman Z-Score3.98 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR3.0% CAGR

Earnings CAGR2.3% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.89

Segment Breadth2/6 growing (33%)

Quarterly TrendRev↓, Margin↑, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEOLance Fritz · 11 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 11.7% vs WACC 3.3%

Earnings Beat Rate50% (9/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 20, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.