VG VG

Name: VG Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026

Price at analysis: $16.38

Crucible Score

39.3

D+

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

42.6

D+

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

35.3

D-

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — VG

VG earns a weak D+ with a 39.3 Crucible Score, dragged down by poor financial quality (10) and limited diversification (25) despite a solid growth profile (60) and strong market position (66). The stock trades at $16 against a $10 fair value, representing a 36% premium that looks unjustified given mediocre fundamentals and insider selling activity. VG needs significant operational improvements to justify current pricing.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

10.1

Growth Profile⚠

60.5

Moat Durability

53.0

Management Effectiveness⚠

46.5

Diversification & Resilience

24.8

Market Position

66.0

Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (10.1)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

7.6

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

30.8

Relative Valuation

57.3

Growth-Adjusted Value

42.1

Historical Valuation

74.2

Macro Context

56.8

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$5.82

Base Case

$10.45

Bull Case

$17.21

Price at Analysis

$16.38

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$5.82	6.0%	33.0%	37.6%
🟢 Base	$10.45	10.0%	38.0%	37.6%
🟢 Bull	$17.21	15.0%	42.0%	37.6%

Key Assumptions: VG shows extremely high capex intensity (75-100%+ of revenue historically) typical of a rapidly scaling midstream/energy infrastructure company, with strong EBITDA margins (35-61%) but deeply negative FCF due to massive capital deployment. WACC is exceptionally high at 37.6% driven by a beta of 5.69 using CAPM (4.35% + 5.69 × 5.85% ERP), reflecting extreme equity risk. Revenue is anchored off the most recent full year of ~$13.8B with moderate growth assumptions, and capex intensity is assumed to normalize from >95% to ~75% of revenue as the asset base matures.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin49.3%

Operating Margin36.6%

Net Margin17.9%

ROIC7.3%

ROE-147.2%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.93

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: -2.77x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 97.1%

Altman Z-Score1.21 (Distress)

Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR28.8% CAGR

Earnings CAGR13.7% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 1.67

Segment BreadthNo segment data

Quarterly TrendRev∆, Margin↓, WC↓, Exp↓

Earnings CredibilityConsistent Misser

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership98.4%

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 7.3% vs WACC 76.2%

Earnings Beat Rate38% (5/10)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.