VRNS logo

VRNS VRNS

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 7, 2026
Price at analysis: $23.35
Crucible Score
57.9
C
Quality × Value Composite
KQI — Quality
59.5
C+
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI — Value
56.0
C
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict — VRNS

VRNS earns a mediocre C grade with weak financial quality (32) dragging down an otherwise decent profile anchored by strong moat durability (86). The stock trades at a 29% discount to fair value despite solid insider buying and a 71% earnings beat rate. VRNS appears to be a quality business with temporary financial headwinds that could reward patient investors if management can improve execution.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality⚠
31.7
Growth Profile⚠
64.4
Moat Durability
86.3
Management Effectiveness
53.6
Diversification & Resilience
60.0
Market Position
52.0
Weakest dimension: Financial Quality (31.7)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
71.6
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
55.7
Relative Valuation
58.1
Growth-Adjusted Value
35.0
Historical Valuation
50.0
Macro Context
17.7

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$18.52
Base Case
$30.14
Bull Case
$46.88
Price at Analysis
$23.35
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
🔴 Bear$18.528.0%12.0%8.9%
🟢 Base$30.1411.0%16.0%8.3%
🟢 Bull$46.8814.0%20.0%7.8%
Key Assumptions: VRNS is transitioning from on-premise to SaaS/subscription, driving strong OCF despite negative GAAP operating margins due to heavy SBC and transition costs. Revenue growth anchored to ~10% historical CAGR with FCF margins expanding as the subscription transition matures; operating margins assumed to turn meaningfully positive by years 4-5 as recurring revenue scales. Net debt of ~$370M (most recent year) used to bridge from EV to equity value, with a normalized tax rate of 15% reflecting NOL utilization phasing out over the projection period.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin78.8%
Operating Margin-23.2%
Net Margin-20.7%
ROIC-12.1%
ROE-35.0%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.97
Cash Conversion
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 2.0%
Altman Z-Score1.23 (Distress)
Piotroski F-Score3/9 (Weak)

Growth

Revenue CAGR12.4% CAGR
Earnings CAGRInsufficient data
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.72
Segment Breadth1/3 growing (33%)
Quarterly TrendRev↘+9%, Margin↑, WC↓, Exp↓
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership2.3%
Compensation96% performance-based
Insider ActivityStrong Buying
Earnings Beat Rate71% (14/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+
MethodologyAll ScoresCrucible BriefsPerformance@KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 7, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence — Conviction Through Scrutiny