WCN logo

WCN WCN

UnknownUnknownN/AπŸ“… Scored March 31, 2026
Price at analysis: $166.08
Crucible Score
60.3
C+
Quality Γ— Value Composite
KQI β€” Quality
65.1
B-
Fundamental Quality Index
KVI β€” Value
54.4
C-
Valuation Attractiveness Index
Crucible Verdict β€” WCN

Waste Connections (WCN) earns a middling C+ rating despite solid operational metrics, with strong market position and growth prospects offset by below-average value scores and concerning insider selling activity. The stock trades at a modest 7% discount to fair value, but management effectiveness lags peer standards. Watch for improvement in capital allocation decisions and whether insiders halt their selling pattern.

β€” Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

β—† KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality
63.3
Growth Profile
70.5
Moat Durability⚠
70.7
Management Effectiveness⚠
54.3
Diversification & Resilience⚠
58.0
Market Position
72.0
Weakest dimension: Management Effectiveness (54.3)

β—† KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety
63.7
FCF Yield & Cash Returns
50.8
Relative Valuation
44.4
Growth-Adjusted Value
28.8
Historical Valuation
94.5
Macro Context
45.9

β—† DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case
$131.52
Base Case
$178.34
Bull Case
$237.89
Price at Analysis
$166.08
ScenarioFair ValueRev CAGR (5yr)Terminal MarginWACC
πŸ”΄ Bear$131.525.0%16.5%7.8%
🟒 Base$178.347.0%18.0%7.3%
🟒 Bull$237.899.0%20.0%6.8%
Key Assumptions: Revenue grew at ~11.5% CAGR over 5 years driven by acquisitions; base case assumes organic growth moderates to 7% as acquisition pace normalizes. Operating margins averaged ~16% historically with recent improvement to 18.1%; bear assumes margin pressure from integration costs while bull assumes continued margin expansion toward 20%. WACC calculated using CAPM with 0.59 beta and 5.5% ERP, yielding cost of equity ~7.6%, blended with after-tax cost of debt ~4.2% at roughly 53% equity / 47% debt capital structure. Capex intensity anchored at ~12.8% of revenue consistent with recent history. Shares outstanding reflect significant recent buyback activity reducing count from ~3,693M to ~256M (likely post-consolidation or split-adjusted).

β—† Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin39.0%
Operating Margin18.1%
Net Margin11.4%
ROIC6.4%
ROE8.5%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 0.62
Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 1.87x
Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 12.8%
Altman Z-Score2.86 (Grey)
Piotroski F-Score6/9 (Good)

Growth

Revenue CAGR11.4% CAGR
Earnings CAGR14.9% CAGR
Growth ConsistencyCV: 0.78
Segment Breadth3/7 growing (43%)
Quarterly TrendMargin↑
Earnings CredibilityConsistent Beater

β—† Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEO Ownership< 1%
Compensation84% performance-based
Insider ActivitySelling
Capital AllocationROIC 6.4% vs WACC 2.8%
Earnings Beat Rate77% (15/22)

β—† Related Companies in Our Universe

Other Unknown companies scored by the Crucible:

Analysis conducted March 31, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.

Β© 2026 Kaladin Capital Intelligence β€” Conviction Through Scrutiny