XOM XOM

Name: XOM Crucible Score
Creator: Kaladin Capital Intelligence

UnknownUnknownN/A📅 Scored April 20, 2026

Price at analysis: $146.44

Crucible Score

50.0

C-

Quality × Value Composite

KQI — Quality

53.6

Fundamental Quality Index

KVI — Value

45.6

D+

Valuation Attractiveness Index

Crucible Verdict — XOM

Exxon Mobil earns a middling C- rating, reflecting modest quality metrics that fail to justify current pricing near fair value of $152. XOM's strongest asset remains its dominant market position, but tepid growth prospects and inconsistent earnings execution under CEO Woods limit upside potential. The stock offers little margin of safety at current levels for patient value investors.

— Kal, Kaladin Capital Intelligence

◆ KQI Quality Dimensions

Financial Quality

58.2

Growth Profile

48.0

Moat Durability

50.5

Management Effectiveness

53.6

Diversification & Resilience⚠

56.0

Market Position

60.0

Weakest dimension: Growth Profile (48.0)

◆ KVI Value Dimensions

DCF Margin of Safety

58.0

FCF Yield & Cash Returns

52.7

Relative Valuation

59.3

Growth-Adjusted Value

22.0

Historical Valuation

5.5

Macro Context

41.1

◆ DCF Valuation Scenarios

Bear Case

$108.52

Base Case

$152.37

Bull Case

$214.89

Price at Analysis

$146.44

Scenario	Fair Value	Rev CAGR (5yr)	Terminal Margin	WACC
🔴 Bear	$108.52	-1.0%	9.0%	6.1%
🟢 Base	$152.37	2.0%	12.0%	5.8%
🟢 Bull	$214.89	4.0%	15.0%	5.5%

Key Assumptions: WACC is low (5.5-6.1%) driven by XOM's very low beta of 0.29 and an equity risk premium of 5.5%, reflecting the defensive nature of integrated oil majors. Revenue base anchored to the most recent year (~$277B) with bear assuming mild secular decline from energy transition headwinds, base assuming modest growth from Guyana/Permian ramp and Pioneer integration, and bull assuming sustained higher commodity prices and volume growth. Operating margins mean-revert from the volatile 8.7-16.1% historical range, with capex intensity normalizing around 7.5% of revenue as major growth projects mature.

◆ Financial Snapshot

Profitability

Gross Margin21.7%

Operating Margin10.5%

Net Margin8.9%

ROIC6.5%

ROE10.3%

Balance Sheet

Balance SheetCR: 1.15

Cash ConversionFCF/EPS: 0.82x

Capital IntensityCapex/Rev: 8.8%

Altman Z-Score4.57 (Safe)

Piotroski F-Score5/9 (Mixed)

Growth

Revenue CAGR4.7% CAGR

Earnings CAGR5.8% CAGR

Growth ConsistencyCV: 2.96

Segment Breadth1/2 growing (50%)

Quarterly TrendRev↑, Margin↓↓

Earnings CredibilityTends to Beat

◆ Analyst Consensus & Leadership

Leadership & Governance

CEODarren Woods · 9 years

CEO Ownership< 1%

Compensation65% performance-based

Insider ActivitySelling

Capital AllocationROIC 6.5% vs WACC 1.1%

Earnings Beat Rate50% (9/22)

◆ Related Companies in Our Universe

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ADBE81.8A-NICE80.7A-DECK79.9A-INTU79.9A-EXEL78.3A-MTCH78.2A-TTD78.0B+

Methodology All Scores Crucible Briefs Performance @KaladinCI

Analysis conducted April 20, 2026 based on most recent SEC filings. Updated quarterly, after new SEC filings.

Point-in-time fundamental analysis. Not investment advice. Scores reflect company quality and valuation at time of analysis and may not reflect current market conditions.